“Kinetic energy is what you get when a strategy of patience finally bursts into action.”
—David Brooks, New York Times
If you’ve been following the cannabis tape—or this Substack—you already know: something’s shifting. You can feel it. Sure, the sector’s still stuck in purgatory, but the energy building underneath is getting harder to ignore. And when the forces of reform, culture, capital (and chaos, on the reg) start to align…well, that’s where things start to move.
As I’ve said before, one of the core tenets of my cannabis thesis is this: cannabis’s biggest threat is cannabis itself. Disunity would allow our “enemies” to pick our pocket one-by-one. Regulators. Politicians. Lobbyists. Vulture financiers. At the same time, the (deeply understandable) instinct for self-preservation would spark in-fighting. But this dynamic isn’t unique—it’s common in nearly every emerging industry. Alcohol in the 1930s. Biotech in the 1990s. Organic food in the 2000s. Solar and cleantech in the 2010s. Crypto in the 2020s. To name just a few.
While this may not be our best light, it’s my job to understand why it happens — and what it’ll take to move forward. I’d argue that’s exactly why you’re here at Sunday Sesh in the first place. And if you’ve been around this space long enough, you know it’s an easy one to fall into. Even I feel it—the urge to point fingers, to flame someone who "isn’t helping." But that’s the trap. And I’d rather redirect that fire into something that moves us forward.
This Sesh is about that energy. We’ll dive into the framework of kinetic vs. potential energy, go through some headlines that “have hit 11,” and finish off on how I’ve shifted my cannabis exposure (paywall for next week(s)).
So roll one up and let’s dive in…
KINETIC > POTENTIAL ENERGY
In case you slept through high school physics: kinetic energy is the energy an object possesses due to its motion, whereas potential energy is the stored energy an object has because of its position. Said simply: a (heavy) bowling ball at rest has a ton of potential energy—but zero kinetic. But when you throw that ball down the alley, it catalyzes a powerful force set in motion.
Of course, the “object” can get held up along the journey—like a floating stick momentarily wedged on a rock midstream. The momentum seemingly halts—only to surge forward with more force once released. The longer the pause, the more energy is typically stored…eventually exploding forward, taking another “step-function” leap as the energy begins to feed on itself.
In the real world, the link between potential and kinetic energy is one of the most overlooked drivers of transformational change—both in markets and inside companies. And since we’re in the business of monetizing these transformations, I would argue this dynamic is one of the most underrated forces driving value creation. On one hand, just because you believe something is worth more (or less), it doesn’t mean the world will agree—until a real catalyst kicks that “mass” into motion. Similarly, once that catalyst kicks into gear, the momentum can stall, leaving investors to wonder: “What’s next?”
Cannabis—and its inevitable legalization—continues to be one of my favorite examples of how these secular transformations play out in the real world. A core tenet of my “end-state” thesis is: as more consumers recognize the powerful benefits of cannabis—especially vs. existing substitutes like alcohol, SSRIs, sleep and pain meds—the energy becomes too great for (out-of-touch) regulators to contain.
For 80+ years, fabricated lies and archaic laws forced this 10,000-year-old plant underground—building massive potential energy to fuel the eventual legal market for generations. With cannabis, kinetic energy is realized when reform, capital, and culture finally align. Decades of grassroots efforts led to Prop 215 in 1996, cracking the dam open and unleashing an explosive “green wave” that’s been sweeping across the country ever since. But like the stick in the stream, cannabis progress always gets stuck… until eventually it breaks free.
Gradually, then suddenly (to quote Hemingway).
Since the Benzinga Cannabis Conference just 5 weeks ago, I’d argue we’ve seen more national-level progress than any stretch since August 2023 when HHS made its final Schedule III recommendation to the DEA. That was nearly two years ago. Since then, pressure has massively built up, especially in Red states with no real access to real weed. It’s increasingly clear that consumers will find a way—whether they live in Texas, Florida, North Carolina, or Georgia. As always, politicians are late to the party.
NOISE VS. SIGNAL
Let’s walk through the last 5 weeks of public news flow, but most investors worth their salt can pile on several additional private insights they bump into along the way. Each on its own—likely noise. Together? It paints a rich mosaic—likely signal.
June 9
Kim Rivers (CEO, $TCNNF) launches its partnership with Weldon Angelos / Mission Green — a pivotal moment in hindsight given the coordinated future events
June 10
Missouri issues cease-and-desist letters to 18 hemp companies
Nebraska holds first meeting ahead of July 1 licensing deadline
House Appropriations Committee calls for investigation into Biden’s Schedule III recommendation, and adopts hemp language carving out industrial/non-intoxicating products
Senate Appropriations Committee approves legislation to ban consumable hemp with THC with bipartisan amendment to delay implementation by 1 year
June 11
Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) warns that federal cuts in the “Big Beautiful Bill” will force states to adopt cannabis reforms
South Carolina Gov. McMaster (R) says legalization case is “very compelling.”
June 13
Sen. Warren sends letter to Trump urging federal decriminalization
Attorney General Alliance hosts state-level cannabis regulators (OR, FL, CA, NV)
Facebook appears to lift cannabis shadow banning — following pressure from SSDP, NORML, etc.
June 16
Senate Judiciary Committee introduces bill increasing penalties for cannabis candy/beverage sales to minors
Wisconsin Dems signal full rec legalization if they flip legislature — highlighting “border pressure” from IL
June 17: Delaware withdraws THC beverage bill, citing time constraints
June 18: Minnesota issues its first adult-use license
June 19: PA Gov. Shapiro doubles down: “Every state around us has legalized.”
June 21: Nebraska sends threat letters to hemp retailers
June 22: Texas Gov. Abbott vetoes SB 3, which would have banned all consumable THC. Expands medical program, adding new qualifying conditions. Calls special session to address intoxicating hemp.
June 25
Sen. Tillis (R-NC): “Cannabis opponents have lost the debate.”
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): Introduces bill to triple legal THC limits.
House of Reps approves amendments allowing VA doctors to recommend medical cannabis and support research.
Treasury Sec Scott Bessent criticizes Mexican cartels + fentanyl, indirectly boosting SAFE Banking under an “America First” agenda
June 27
Tyson-led “Coalition of Athletes & Entertainers Supporting Trump” announced
Gaetz / Trulieve photo surfaces. Gaetz says cannabis legalization could help GOP win younger voters.
June 30 – July 1
Tyson and Brady Cobb hit Fox News, Chris Cuomo and others to push for common-sense reform
July 1
Delaware announces adult-use sales to begin August 1
July 8–9
Marc Cohodes ($GLASF’s “loudest” investor) pounds table on upcoming regulations given Trump agenda while attacking $GTIBF CEO Ben Kovler on The Dales Report
July 10
Federal cannabis raids begin in CA and beyond, including on Glass House. $GLASF rounds trips from $6 to $9 and back again. Wild.
July 11
July 14
July 15: Marijuana Policy Project hires Adam Smith — a major strategic win.
July 16: Despite the raid, Glass House refinances its expensive prefs rolling/raising ~$80MM in capital—the first meaningful public equity raise in many years.
EXPOSURE SHIFTS
I want to make it exceptionally clear that my SAFETY, SPIFFS & STUPIDITY theme is being expressed in/out of cannabis. And it’s working…I hope you’ve found my commentary valuable.
Since the start of the year, my cannabis exposure has increased ~20-25% across the board with meaningful buys during April’s Tariff Tantrum. Yet, cannabis continues to be a manageable sleeve in my active portfolio (~15-20%).
Here are my major moves since the last update provided at the end of May:
SAFETY: Continued to add to $GTBIF and $TCNNF well before the late June lift-off—GTI continues to be programmatic buys, and Trulieve proactive buys when it flirts with $4/share. I’m eagerly awaiting Q2 earnings—I don’t expect fireworks—and hope earnings bring additional price discovery.
SPIFFS:
$GLASF/W: What a long strange trip. When the stock approached $9 on July 9th/10th—an 85% move in ~2 weeks—my warrants started to do what they should, increasing ~2.5-3x from when I scooped them during the April gongshow. I peeled out of 50% of my position to make room for the common ahead of the refi management committed to on the Q1 call (and repeated in subsequent interviews). Two days later, Glass House was raided, crashing the equity 45% (and effectively round-tripping…wild). A week later, the company announced a highly accretive refinancing…wild. Now that the prefs are out of the way—and the stock’s back below where it started—I’ve started nibbling on the equity…as I said I would. But…facts change. There could be another shoe to drop as we await any impact from regulators/Feds. (This game ain’t easy.)
$CBSTF: Dramatically increased exposure once again. It’s still my bet that the ETF will increase exposure here (because it has no choice). And we got the first glimpse of that on July 10th. In my judgment, it’s the “spiffiest” play on any federal movement. Still like it.
STUPIDITY:
Increased exposure to idiosyncratic cannabis shorts (won’t disclose), and also increased exposure to Big Food / Alcohol shorts (which I’m very public about on Twitter).
With that, I hope you found value in this Sunday Sesh. Any questions, holler—I’ll try to answer.
Onward,
SUNDAY SESH
***Disclaimer: Not financial advice, do your own work, no conflicts, my own opinions, cannabis used frequently in the authorship to face the pain and creatively solve problems. And, know what you own.